October 2006 FewsNet Report

Cereal availability in Zimbabwe this marketing year depends upon the country's ability to finance the planned imports of 565,000 MT of maize and about 230,000 MT of wheat. The poor state of Zimbabwe's economy will make raising the required funds enormously challenging. The availability of maize meal in shops throughout the country improved in September and early October, particularly in southern Zimbabwe, where purchase of cereal grown in more productive areas of Zimbabwe is required to meet local demand. The ever-increasing cost of food and cost of living are making market purchase to fill food gaps prohibitive. Local maize prices are highly correlated to local food security: areas that were assessed to have the highest concentration of food insecure people recorded the highest open market grain prices in October 2006. The problem is exacerbated by the Grain Marketing Board's (GMB) limited capacity to redistributed available maize throughout the country, which fuels higher grain prices on the open market. Fuel and fertilizer shortages persist with hardly any time left before the start of the 2006/07 summer cropping season.
Current Hazard Summary

Soaring annual inflation was measured in September 2006 at 1,023 percent.
The cereal deficit for the 2006/07 marketing year is projected to be about 22 percent of total domestic needs.
Shortages of fertilizers and fuel are likely to going to reduce food and cash crop production in the 2006/07 agricultural season.
El Nino conditions were confirmed in September 2006, but it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about its likely impacts on the current agricultural season.
National cereal availability
Zimbabwe's cereal availability in the 2006/07 consumption year depends on the country's ability to import the planned 565,000 MT of maize and about 230,000 MT of wheat on time. This level of imports will not only ensure that the country has enough cereal for the current consumption year but will also have maize stocks sufficient feed the Zimbabwean population for two and half months after the next harvest in April 2007. However, raising the required funds for the planned imports is likely to be an enormous challenge for Zimbabwe, given its under-performing economy. Furthermore, the forecasted wheat production is still being harvested, and a significant proportion of the potential harvest is threatened by the onset of the 2006/07 rainfall season.

Wide disparities in sub-national cereal availability

Maize meal availability in shops throughout the country improved markedly in September and early October, particularly in southern Zimbabwe where production does not normally satisfy local demand. The improved availability is attributable to the increase in supplies of grain and maize meal distributed to millers and shops by the GMB, augmented by food aid distributions in September. In addition, limited amounts of grain are moving from surplus to deficit areas through private traders.

ZimJournalists Arise will publish Part 11 of this report tomorrow.