A ZANU-PF Split Imminent???

Yesterday ZimJournalists Arise published Part 1 on this brilliant piece from Sokwanele. Today we publish Part 11 in line with OUR view that the SUCCESSION story is going to be the biggest story for Zimbabwean JOURNOS. The present Mugabe scenario is well documented but the future is UNKNOWN as we try and sort out whether it be the either two MDC’s or that change will come from within ZANU-PF itself or whether from the ARMY. From the events that are unfolding, it seems while journos’s have feasted (sometimes with vulture like zest) on the MDC split a major story is unfolding in front of our eyes.So guys lets start sniffing!!!!
Voice Of Reason
Only the Zanu PF National Chairman, John Nkomo, seems to have seen the light, calling for unity of purpose among party members and the leadership in Matabeleland North province, and urging them to desist from gossip which is threatening to destroy the party.

What do we make of all of this?There are indeed implications in all of this for both the party and for individuals within the party (including, of course, Mugabe).As mentioned above, the only voice of reason (looking at it from the Zanu PF side) appears to be John Nkomo.

Interviewed recently in the government paper, The Sunday News, Nkomo called on the party to remain united at all times, following with the warning: ..."but as we pursue this spirit of openness, let us do so in the spirit of building the party, our party. Let it be constructive criticism. I am against rumour-mongers. There are some of the people [sic] who peddle lies and in so doing contribute toward the disintegration of the party….Mind you, those calling for the regime change are looking at the cracks that could be coming up. Let us make sure that no cracks come in to divide us. Let us be one, but there must be openness among party members. Nobody is bigger than the party."

This is the party that got its biggest fright ever in the 2000 Parliamentary Elections, where the opposition MDC gained 57 of the 120 elected seats - an unprecedented challenge to a party that has been largely unopposed since Independence in 1980. Despite its impressive wins, the MDC was cheated, as the regime rigged the results not only in this election, but also in the 2002 Presidential Election and again in the 2005 Parliamentary Election.

Had they been free and fair, and that means a free and fair environment too, Zanu PF did not have any hope of winning any of these elections. It simply does not have the support of the people any longer. And the wise among them know this.So the cracks, yea rifts, that are appearing in the regime are vigorously ringing the alarm bells in the corridors of power.

How long can a party which is riven by in-fighting go on? Zanu PF as we have known it for the last 26 years is busy imploding.Mugabe himself does not have a future - he is a pathetic old man, rattling on about liberation politics and the conspiracies of the West. It is time for him to step down, but his party is not yet clear on who should replace him.

Perhaps the most important evidence of the deep cancer within Zanu PF's body politic came a few weeks ago when the Zanu PF Secretary for Information Nathan Shamuyarira announced that plans were being considered for Mugabe's term to be extended from 2008 to 2010.

Within days Mutasa debunked that idea and said there were no such plans. Shamuyarira was then forced to try to save face by saying he was "misquoted" - that wonderful hiding place politicians try to use when they have been publicly humiliated.Let us make the point that there can be no greater crisis within any political party than a disagreement over how long a party leader should remain in office.

One just has to look at the furor created in Britain over when Tony Blair will stand down to see what divisions such a debate can cause within a political party. But of course that has happened in the Labour Party, a party which for all its faults does not settle its differences using AK 47s.Zanu PF on the other hand has a long history of settling its internal problems and political contestations violently.

The stakes are now very high because there is clearly a fundamental disagreement as to when Mugabe himself should go. Clearly some want his term to end in 2008 whereas others want him to continue until 2010.It is not fanciful to speculate that it is the Mujuru faction which is happy for Mugabe's term to be extended for it is that faction that needs more time now that Joice Mujuru hasn't worked out as they had hoped. They are the ones that need more time to get an acceptable candidate in place. On the other hand Mnangagwa appears to be gaining the upper hand within Zanu PF and his faction are clearly happy to see the back of Mugabe by 2008 so that Mnangagwa can contest for the leadership of Zanu PF and the presidency of Zimbabwe.Mnangagwa appears to be pulling out all the stops - the recent reports that he is behind the arrests of businessmen (thus further harming the economy) and the evictions of productive farmers in Chipinge and Kwe Kwe (also further damaging the economy) indicate that he is doing all he can to undermine Joice Mujuru's efforts to resuscitate the economy.

That, although despicable, is politically understandable, because if Mrs Mujuru manages to stabilise the economy prior to her run for the top job in 2008 her chances of succeeding will be greater. However, and conversely, if during her "watch" the economy continues to crumble, that will enhance Mnangagwa's claim that he is the only Zanu PF leader who has the business acumen to turn the country around.But all of this is of course a high risk strategy.

One cannot help but think of all the frantic maneuvering of the Nazis in the final days of the Third Reich. Himmler, Goebels and Bormann were consumed with jealousy in Hitler's final days over the question of who would succeed Hitler and lead the "next Nazi government". These power struggles took place as late as April 1945 when Russian tanks were only a few blocks away from the Fuhrer bunker. To all objective observers the power struggle was an absolutely pointless exercise as there was no possibility that the Nazis would survive the Allied onslaught - but jostle for power they did even in the final days.

State House in Harare may not have Russian tanks anywhere in its vicinity but there are other hostile tanks around - such as inflation, economic collapse and the mounting anger of the people. The days of this regime are numbered and the increasing infighting within Zanu PF is the surest sign of its impending collapse.As for the country, the divisions and splits can only be good news, presaging the end of a regime which has dealt out death and destruction - quite literally - to millions. Its demise cannot come too soon. If there is to be any hope of beginning to repair the terrible damage that Zanu PF has inflicted upon Zimbabwe there must be fresh elections, held soon and under credible international supervision, to ensure that the people of Zimbabwe, as distinct from a privileged clique of discredited politicians, can pass their (long delayed) judgment on this delinquent regime and usher in an altogether new dispensation based on justice and the rule of law. We hope that a time will come in the not too distant future, when we can go to the polls again; not amidst violence and intimidation and cheating, but peacefully, and supervised by impartial, international observers. We need democracy, and the demise of the present Zanu PF power structure is a pre-requisite for that fundamental shift. We need an end to Zanu PF as we know it. We need peace, stability and prosperity. Let us work together to make this happen.

Viva Zimbabwe!